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Some services give a reading on market sentiment determined by compiling opinions from many advisory services. Don't be influenced in your trading by what someone says, or you will continually change your mind. Once you have formed a basic opinion in the market direction, don't allow yourself to be easily influenced. You can always find someone who can give you what appear to be logical reasons for reversing your position.
If you listen to these outside views, you may be tempted to change your mind only to find later that holding your opinion would have been more profitable. Don't feel that you have to trade every day, or even hold a position every day. The beginning trader is tempted to trade or hold a position every day and this is a costly tendency. The successful traders develop patience and discipline to wait for an opportunity.
After they have taken a position and begin to feel uncomfortable, successful traders either reduce the size of the position or liquidate. Putting in an order to buy or sell at market may show a lack of discipline, according to one successful trader. To avoid violating this rule, he places specific price limit orders. However there are times when he wants to liquidate a position immediately. Then the market order is helpful. Your goal should be to minimize the use of market orders. For an in depth review of the futures market, how it works, all the different types of order and much more, click here.
If you are trading emini contracts, there are contracts expiring in March, June, September and December. The nearest month is usually the most active contract until the last few days before expiry. If you are trading commodities, trade the contract with the highest volume and open interest. For example with soybeans, November, March and July usually have the highest volume and open interest, depending on the season. Trading these active months should enable you to get in and out easily.
A similar caution should be noted for inactive commodities. Low volume commodities are not the markets for beginning traders because it may be difficult to liquidate a position when you want out. When trading commodities, watch the "families": grains, the meats or the metals. When you spot a wide divergence in a group, it could signal a trading opportunity.
For example, if all grains except soybeans were moving higher, the millionaire traders would look for an opportunity to sell soybeans as soon as the grains in general appeared to be weakening. The reverse of this is true also.
The traders would buy the strongest commodity in the group during periods of weakness. You'll hurt yourself if you try to have the necessary information and "feel" of several different markets, e. Know your limitations and trade within these limits. Few traders successfully trade multiple markets at the same time, because they are moved by independent factors.
This is a good price-direction clue, particularly after a major report. A break out of the opening range may tell you the direction of trading for the day or the next several days. If the market breaks through the opening range on the high side, go long. If it breaks out on the bottom side of the opening range, go short. This rule is used by many successful traders to decide when to establish or lift a position. It means never buy until the price trades above the previous days close, or never sell until the price trades below the previous day's close.
Followers of a "market momentum philosophy" use this rule. They believe that the weight in the market is in their favor when they wait for trading to break out of the previous day's trading range before adding to their position. This rule is similar to the daily rule, except it is used on weekly highs and lows.
A break of the weekly range can be seen as a signal of the trading direction for several weeks to come and can therefore be considered a stronger signal. The longer the period you're watching, the more the market momentum behind your decision. So monthly price breakouts are an even stronger clue to price trends and are vitally important for the position trader or hedger.
When the price breaks out on the topside of the previous monthly high, it's a buy signal. When the break out is on the bottom side of a previous monthly low, it's a sell signal. When you add to a position, don't add more contracts at any one time than the number of contracts you already have open. For example if you're trading emini, let's assume your initial position was 4 contracts. An ideal situation would be to pyramid by adding 3 contracts then 2 contracts, then 1 contract, providing the market is moving your way.
Try to avoid the "inverted pyramid" type of trading where at each addition you add more than your original position. This is a dangerous trading technique because a minor market reversal can wipe out your profit for the entire position. Your average price is closer to market price in the "inverted pyramid" situation, which makes you vulnerable. Another danger in pyramiding is that of over-committing yourself to the point where you lack sufficient margin money.
If you want to be long a certain number of contracts, or a certain number of shares, you may want to do it 4 or more installments, to see if the market is moving in your direction before you become totally committed. Successful traders use the fundamentals and various technical signals to guide their trading, but the most important key is market action.
The millionaire traders tend to wait for the market to verify that the initial position was a good one before putting on their full position. Regardless of how confident you feel, if you establish a position that shows a loss, don't add to it. It may mean that you are out of step with the market. Some traders don't agree with this rule, believing in a "price averaging" technique.
The millionaire traders interviewed believe this is a risky technique and a way to mentally justify adding to a position that only magnifies a mistake. This sometimes goes back to the "hoping" method mentioned in Rule No 5. When the market moves against you, admit your mistake by liquidating your position.
Some successful traders have only three or four profitable trades out of ten because through discipline or stop-loss orders they get out early when they are wrong. One of the most common failures of new traders is their inability to admit they're wrong say millionaire traders. Decisions made during the trading day based upon a price move or a news item are usually disastrous, say the millionaires. Successful traders prefer to formulate a basic opinion before the market opens, then look for the proper time to execute a decision that has been made - apart from the emotion of the current market.
When a trader completely changes his direction during the trading day, it can confuse him and may result in generating lots of commissions with little profit. Trading every day begins to dull your judgement. Anything below that I begin to lose. If he has been successful he goes to Florida, if not he stays in Chicago. A trading break helps you take a detached view of the market, and tends to give you a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks.
Successful traders like breathing room. When everyone seems to be long, they look for a reason to be short. Historically, the public tends to be wrong. Successful traders feel uncomfortable when their position is popular with the buying public, especially small traders. Periodic government reports on the position of traders of various sizes provide "overcrowding" clues.
Another clue is "contrary opinion". When most of the advisory services are long, for example, the successful trader gets ready to move to the sideline or to take a short position. Some services give a reading on market sentiment determined by compiling opinions from many advisory services.
Don't be influenced in your trading by what someone says, or you will continually change your mind. Once you have formed a basic opinion in the market direction, don't allow yourself to be easily influenced. You can always find someone who can give you what appear to be logical reasons for reversing your position. If you listen to these outside views, you may be tempted to change your mind only to find later that holding your opinion would have been more profitable.
Don't feel that you have to trade every day, or even hold a position every day. The beginning trader is tempted to trade or hold a position every day and this is a costly tendency. The successful traders develop patience and discipline to wait for an opportunity.
After they have taken a position and begin to feel uncomfortable, successful traders either reduce the size of the position or liquidate. Putting in an order to buy or sell at market may show a lack of discipline, according to one successful trader. To avoid violating this rule, he places specific price limit orders. However there are times when he wants to liquidate a position immediately.
Then the market order is helpful. Your goal should be to minimize the use of market orders. For an in depth review of the futures market, how it works, all the different types of order and much more, click here. If you are trading emini contracts, there are contracts expiring in March, June, September and December.
The nearest month is usually the most active contract until the last few days before expiry. If you are trading commodities, trade the contract with the highest volume and open interest. For example with soybeans, November, March and July usually have the highest volume and open interest, depending on the season. Trading these active months should enable you to get in and out easily. A similar caution should be noted for inactive commodities. Low volume commodities are not the markets for beginning traders because it may be difficult to liquidate a position when you want out.
When trading commodities, watch the "families": grains, the meats or the metals. When you spot a wide divergence in a group, it could signal a trading opportunity. For example, if all grains except soybeans were moving higher, the millionaire traders would look for an opportunity to sell soybeans as soon as the grains in general appeared to be weakening.
The reverse of this is true also. The traders would buy the strongest commodity in the group during periods of weakness. You'll hurt yourself if you try to have the necessary information and "feel" of several different markets, e. Know your limitations and trade within these limits. Few traders successfully trade multiple markets at the same time, because they are moved by independent factors. This is a good price-direction clue, particularly after a major report. A break out of the opening range may tell you the direction of trading for the day or the next several days.
If the market breaks through the opening range on the high side, go long. If it breaks out on the bottom side of the opening range, go short. This rule is used by many successful traders to decide when to establish or lift a position. It means never buy until the price trades above the previous days close, or never sell until the price trades below the previous day's close.
Followers of a "market momentum philosophy" use this rule. They believe that the weight in the market is in their favor when they wait for trading to break out of the previous day's trading range before adding to their position. This rule is similar to the daily rule, except it is used on weekly highs and lows. A break of the weekly range can be seen as a signal of the trading direction for several weeks to come and can therefore be considered a stronger signal. The longer the period you're watching, the more the market momentum behind your decision.
So monthly price breakouts are an even stronger clue to price trends and are vitally important for the position trader or hedger. When the price breaks out on the topside of the previous monthly high, it's a buy signal. When the break out is on the bottom side of a previous monthly low, it's a sell signal. When you add to a position, don't add more contracts at any one time than the number of contracts you already have open.
For example if you're trading emini, let's assume your initial position was 4 contracts. An ideal situation would be to pyramid by adding 3 contracts then 2 contracts, then 1 contract, providing the market is moving your way. Try to avoid the "inverted pyramid" type of trading where at each addition you add more than your original position.
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