3Know the value of a half-point, especially in NFL betting. Warren Sharp gives sports bettors predictive NFL analytics & visualized data, winning 60% on game totals and beating NFL lines with the sharpest edge in. It's time to Get Sharp with real-time odds & bet tracking, live scoring, expert picks, sports betting analysis, articles, prop models, a master class, live. ETHEREAL KNIVES WHAT WEAPON TYPE
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You would expect that the line would go to Green Bay However, I would say the majority of it comes out when the lines are first released. You also want to follow late line movements, especially on underdogs. If a sharp bettor is looking to pound a dog, he will sometimes wait for the public to back the favorite in hopes that the dog will catch and extra 0.
Then he will unload just before game time. Obviously, most bettors want to wager on several games every week. However, if you can be disciplined and simply follow these reverse line movements throughout the season, I have no doubt you will come out ahead every year. Perhaps betting something in an unrelated sport. Or, when necessary, bet something without getting the best number in the market.
Tell 3 : Betting Round Numbers This seems like a silly tell. The first time a bookmaker told me they picked me off for this I thought they were joking. Sharp bettors bet to win round numbers. Public bettors wager a round number without thinking about the payout. As someone who has spent time running up and down the Las Vegas Strip getting bets down, I used to hate the idea of dealing with pocket change. Coins slow you down. So I never wanted to be in a position where the payout included coins. Meanwhile, public bettors are likely betting whatever bills they have in their hand at the time.
Taking A Cue From The Art of Card Counting Blackjack card counters have long been picked off based on how neat and consistent their betting spreads are. They learn that speed is key so they keep organized chip stacks and always try to make bets that can be paid out quickly by the dealer. In actuality, they might buy themselves longevity by appearing to be less organized and methodical than they actually are. The casino might consider them a disorganized gambler if they kept mixed stacks and made rainbow colored bets.
It may seem like a trivial thing, but tossing in some weird bet amounts make you look like you have less of a system. It is the equivalent of shoving all-in when your desperate to win. To the sportsbook, it looks irrational. Tell 4 : Straight Bets Only Perhaps the biggest dividing line that separates sharp bettors from public bettors is the parlay wager. Public bettors love to bet a little to win a lot, and this can be seen with the rising popularity of Same Game Parlays. Parlays are the siren song that draws their betting into dangerous areas of high vig and rocky results.
Do sharps bet parlays? Generally, a sharp bettor sails along with a steady pace of disciplined straight bets, often for the same amount each time rather than bet parlays. Parlays increase variance and compound the house edge in -EV wagers. Sharp bettors know that and generally avoid them. If your betting history shows a disciplined approach of straight bets, made at relatively the same time each day, and primarily on unders and underdogs, your days of wide-open limits may be numbered regardless of your results.
You look like a sharp bettor. A Winning Parlay Strategy Often tossing in some parlay action can throw a book off your scent. Furthermore, in the same way that a parlay compounds the house edge in negative EV situations; it also compounds the player advantage when used with positive EV bets.
However, if you are originating your own handicapping, and you are confident in your skills, using parlays can make it tough for the book to discern whether you are a sharp bettor or just a lucky loser. Round Robin Betting The downside of parlay betting is the variance involved. Fortunately for those who are averse to big swings there is Round Robin betting. Round Robins allow you to automatically wager on all the permutations of your teams.
If you have four teams, you can place four 3-team parlay wagers and six 2-team parlay wagers in addition to your single 4-team parlay wager. To a sportsbook, you look like their best friend. However, it is decidedly less variance than just putting all your bets into a single parlay.
The benefits and validity of CLV have been debated ad nauseum in many places. Whether you believe in CLV or not, it is clear that sportsbooks and their player assessment algorithms clearly do. Nothing is a stronger indicator of threat for operators than a player who gets consistent CLV. Sharp bettors, with their propensity to bet early and be quick to line moves tend to generate far more CLV than public bettors who bet late. For many sharp bettors, generating CLV is a badge of courage whether they win or lose.
It would be disingenuous of me to try to help you be stronger bettors and tell you to somehow minimize your CLV. However, I happen to have a couple suggestions on how you can reduce some of the Artificial CLV in your betting. Artificial Closing Line Value comes when your bet is caught up in market overreaction.
The best example of this would be if you are tailing a popular tout in a very influencible market like College Basketball Totals. Following a tout has many potential disadvantages. In other words, if the closing line is less indicative of the true odds of the match, the CLV is also less indicative.
That means they have a market that is not adjusting to the value they are squeezing out of it. The odds in-game move fast and frequently.
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