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Pankaj mishra economic times forex

pankaj mishra economic times forex

“The unprecedented political, economic and social disorder that accompanied the rise of the industrial capitalist economy in nineteenth century. Pankaj Mishra. Chairperson & Non Executive Director ; Prachi Jain. Co. Secretary & Compl. Officer ; Rajgopalan Iyengar. Chief Financial Officer. Agriculture-Agricultural growth-(India); Economic growth. -AGRICULTURAL POLICY-(INDIA-ASSAM) ECONOMIC TIMES, () MISHRA, Pankaj. PREDICTED TREND FOR ETHEREUM 2019

Market participants and move from one market to the other leading to inter-linking of these markets. The link between the forex and domestic market has increased due to the freedom given to banks to maintain foreign currency assets and liabilities that can be swapped into rupees and vice versa. On the liabilities side there are foreign currency borrowings from overseas offices, borrowings for lending to exporters, foreign currency non-resident deposits FCNR-B deposits and Exchange Earners Foreign Currency deposits of corporates.

Banks are permitted to use these funds either for raising rupee resources through swaps or for lending in foreign currency. Banks have been allowed to lend in foreign currency to companies in India for any productive purpose without linking to exports or import financing. Corporates can substitute rupee credit for foreign credit as they now have the choice to borrow either in foreign currency or rupees depending on the cost, taking both interest cost and exchange risk into account Reddy, Evidence suggests that the nineties have seen growing inter-linkages between money, foreign exchange and government securities markets.

RBI intervention Net Purchase of dollars 0 During there was upward pressure on the rupee because of foreign portfolio capital inflow that was now allowed to enter India. However, the rupee was not allowed to appreciate but was kept constant by the RBI fig 1a and 1b. This was due to the conflict between the objectives of export promotion and the free movement of the rupee. The market was not freely allowed to determine the exchange rate of the rupee.

If it had, the rupee would have appreciated. In real terms the rupee appreciated as inflation levels in India were higher than in the partner countries fig 2. As figure 3 indicates, in the initial surge was over and buying pressure from FIIs reduced. As the rupee continued to be overvalued the current account deficit started mounting Fig 4. There was downward pressure on the rupee. In the following year, the appreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies put upward pressure on the rupee.

The policy of stabilizing the exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar ensured that the rupee traded in the range of Rs. In and the RBI allowed the rupee to be more or less determined in the market. Thus RBI followed a policy to prevent appreciation, even for prolonged periods of time.

Thus, if for any short-term reasons such as capital flows, there was excess demand for the rupee leading to a pressure on the rupee to appreciate, the RBI purchased dollars to push up their demand for dollars and prevent the appreciation. Any analysis of exchange rates must consider that there may be cross-currency movements in exchange rates that may not be adequately captured by a bilateral exchange rate.

Therefore, effective exchange rates may be more meaningful indicators of external competitiveness. Effective exchange rates are expressed as indices. The nominal effective exchange rate NEER is a weighted average of bilateral nominal exchange rates. In India, the NEER is expressed as an index using bilateral export weights or bilateral total trade exports plus imports weights. The NEER is constructed as a 5-country, country and country based index on a monthly as well as annual basis.

In constructing the NEER, the exchange rates of the currencies are expressed as the number of units of numeraire per unit of currency. Special Drawing Rights SDRs were chosen as the numeraire as the exchange value of the SDR is determined by a weighted average of a basket of currencies which could offset fluctuations in individual currencies. In terms of the real effects of exchange rate movements the appropriate indicator to examine will be the real exchange rate which measures the relative purchasing power of two currencies in the goods market.

It is obtained by deflating the nominal rate by an 9 index of relative prices between home and abroad. The real effective exchange rate REER is the weighted average of bilateral price-deflated nominal rates. In other words, it is the weighted average of NEER adjusted by domestic to foreign relative local-currency prices. REER is also measured monthly and annually on the basis of 5, 10 and 36 country trade and export weights. The country REER is measured as follows.

Therefore, a decline in the REER reflects a reduction in the cost of producing domestic goods and an increase in export competitiveness. We now examine the different assessments that emerge by focusing on nominal and real measures of the effective Rupee rate. The effective Figure 4.

Despite the steady nominal rate, the country NEER had depreciated by 0. S Fig. The rupee mirrored the weakness of the intervention currency and the NEER depreciated by a steep 7. The nominal depreciation of the rupee was strong enough to offset the adverse inflation differentials between India and its trading partners.

An evaluation of the effective exchange rates during reveals that the rupee has undergone sharp depreciation in nominal terms. In contrast, the REER appreciated by about 2. Visually, the REER appears to be stationary over this period, suggesting that there may have been only marginal gain in overall export competitiveness. In the structural model underlying this study the model is based on a two-country model for real exchange rate.

It requires data such as the nominal exchange rate and prices of traded and non-traded goods in each of the two countries. The model developed was a bilateral rather than a multilateral model with the US and India as the two countries. Each of these indices is available on a trade- weighted or export-weighted basis, and with different base years. The same methodology can be used for any of these series. This has clearly been demonstrated not only in the episode when the value of the rupee was kept constant against the dollar for 16 months, but also later whenever there was a pressure on the rupee dollar rate, the RBI intervened to prevent appreciation of the rupee.

The other rates in the market are determined broadly by the movement of the dollar against various currencies. Since it is the dollar and not the rupee that is a major currency in international markets, arbitrage ensures that the value of the rupee expressed in yen cannot be significantly different from what the dollar-rupee-yen rate would set it at apart from some transaction costs.

Consequently it was decided that a dollar-centric model would be more appropriate than a model that separately tries to forecast the rupee- yen, rupee-pound, rupee-mark, rupee-franc, rupee-lira etc. The Model In Patnaik and Pauly it is assumed that the analysis of exchange rate behaviour can be dichotomized into the modeling of short-run fluctuations and a determination of the long-run equilibrium exchange rate see the models in MacDonald and Taylor.

Good surveys can be found in Isard and Frankel and Rose It is the behaviour of the long-run equilibrium rate that is the focus of this paper. In the short run it is assumed that a variant of uncovered interest parity holds which allows for systematic deviations from simple UIP. Deviations from the basic parity condition arise due to a number of factors. The most important among these may be risk. The above analysis assumes that the foreign exchange market is in equilibrium only when expected returns on domestic and foreign currency bonds are the same.

This assumption is known as perfect asset substitutability. Two assets are perfect substitutes when it does not matter to investors how their portfolios are divided between them, provided both yield the same expected rate of return. However, if two assets differ in terms of the risk associated with them, they are not perfectly substitutable. Differences in degrees of risk associated with different assets leads to imperfect asset substitutability.

If assets denominated in different currencies have different degrees of risk, investors may be willing to earn lower expected returns on assets that are less risky. A very risky asset may be held only if the return on it is expected to be very high. Hence, when domestic and foreign assets are not perfect substitutes, equilibrium in the foreign exchange market requires that the domestic interest rate equal the expected domestic currency return on foreign assets plus a vector of variables that lead to deviations from UIP such as risk premium, W, that reflects the difference between the riskiness of domestic and foreign bonds due to inflation risk or country risk and other factors such as central bank intervention P.

Following some elementary manipulation, this assumptions leads to a model in which the current real exchange rate is determined by real interest differentials, the risk premium, intervention in the foreign exchange market by the monetary authorities and 13 the expected exchange rate. The equilibrium exchange rate is the focus of this paper, and we now examine how the equilibrium exchange rate is determined.

The purchasing power parity PPP hypothesis remains the most important theoretical construct in seeking to explain the long run behaviour of exchange rates. Though evidence has been conflicting and PPP has often been rejected as a predictive theory in the empirical literature, it still remains the most powerful tool to understand the. Changes in output markets such as productivity growth or demand shifts lead to changes in price ratios of traded and behaviour of the movement of exchange rates of different currencies.

However, systematic deviations from the PPP occur due to the fact that not all goods are tradable and hence their prices do not equalize Changes in output markets such as productivity growth of demand shifts lead to changes in price ratios of traded and nontraded goods that determine the exchange rate [see Balassa , Samuelson and earlier Harrod ]. The Harrod-Samuelson-Balassa effect is a tendency for countries with higher productivity in tradables compared with non-tradables to have higher price levels.

Further, changes in demand lead to changes in the real exchange rate. For instance, a shift in demand in one country away from tradables and towards nontradables raises the relative price of tradables and change in the price ratio leads to change in the exchange rate. As indicated above, not only is a large component of our trade and capital flows dollar denominated, the dollar is the intervention currency of the RBI.

Consequently, a dollar-centric analysis is preferred. As the prices of nontraded and traded goods are not published as such, most research in this area proxies these by the consumer and producer price indices. Liquidity is measured by reserve bank lending to the central government. Intervention by the central bank P is measured by the net purchase of dollars by RBI in the foreign exchange market.

Here we are missing out the component of intervention in the foreign exchange market that the State Bank of India undertakes on behalf of the RBI. No suitable measure for this variable is available as one cannot separate purchase of dollars for normal bank activity from that for the sole purpose of sale and purchase of dollars to influence the rupee. The nominal interest rate in India is measured by the return on day treasury bills.

Similarly, when the foreign price ratio of nontradables to tradables increases, the domestic currency is expected to depreciate. Liquidity in the system is measured by reserve bank credit to the central government. As liquidity in the home country increases, the currency is expected to depreciate. The correlation between expected returns on foreign markets and the domestic interest rate has increased due to financial reform in India that has led to greater integration of different segments of financial markets such as money and forex markets.

If we estimate the equation recursively we find evidence of this increasing integration. Figure 1 shows the coefficient of the real interest differential when the equation is estimated recursively. It is first estimated from January to December and then the sample is extended month by month to include the period till December The import cover proxies the country risk associated with the home country.

International creditors such as banks and foreign portfolio investors often monitor the level of foreign exchange reserves available with developing countries to assess the risk of default on foreign debt. The foreign exchange crisis of in India, when India was on the brink of default reached its peak when reserves fell to only two weeks worth of imports.

A comfortable level of reserves that allow a country a few months of import cover, and the capability to service debt represent reduced risk and hence increase confidence in its assets. Patients who are younger than years are eligible for ASCT. Study Design A primary costing survey was undertaken to collect data on resources spent for treatment of MM for both the modalities i.

In general, there are two types of approaches commonly used in the costing studies. The top down approach employs the use of financial records of expenditure done in the past to assess the utilization of resources. On the other hand, bottom up costing approach exercises a more comprehensive method of specifying the type and measuring the quantity of inputs being involved in the treatment [ 18 ].

In our study, we used bottom up approach to determine the resources used as per adaptation of standard methods of economic costing [ 18 — 20 ]. Further, the costing survey was carried as per these standard methods which have also previously been employed in costing studies elsewhere in India [ 21 — 24 ]. Detailed assessment of out of pocket payments borne by the patients was also undertaken. Firstly, an initial assessment of the various service centres was done in order to allocate the costs of treatment in both the arms.

A service centre was considered primary in case it was directly involved in delivery of health services to the patient. Out-patient department, in-patient department, bone marrow transplant centre where in-patient ASCT delivered and high dependency unit where patients with severe hematological illness are admitted were taken as direct primary cost centres. While the secondary service centres included electricity, water etc.

Secondly, an output of each service centre was identified and measured for the last 1 year March —April using hospital records. Thirdly, the resources used to produce these outputs were outlined and measured. Broadly, these input resources are classified as capital and recurrent resource based on their time of usage. For example, buildings, medical equipment, non-medical equipment like beds, furniture which are expected to last for more than a year are considered as capital resources.

Salaries of staff, consumables, drugs, overheads like electricity, water etc. Enlisting of staff involved in provision of treatment modalities under consideration either full time or part-time, whether contractual or permanent was done. Data Collection Various sources of information like hospital records, stock registers, prescription slips, and relevant records were reviewed to elicit the number of services under each service centre like OP, BMT, HDU, IPD general rendered as well as annual number of patients who sought treatment during the study period.

Stock registers were reviewed to gather information on input resources like drugs and consumables, medical and non-medical equipment, etc. Utility of each room and use of capital resources like equipment, building, furniture etc. The data on floor area of the rooms, waiting areas and any other space being used were also obtained from records of engineering department.

Information on salaries were deduced from salary slips of staff involved in delivery of services like doctors, nurses, other medical and non-medical personnel. Several staff members were engaged in more than one activity. Using standard schedules [ 23 , 24 ] detailed time allocation data with respect to different services for last 1 week was ascertained by interviewing, which was supplemented with actual observation.

Data on life of capital items, for example equipment, was assessed through expert consultations. Price of each of the items whether capital or recurrent along with information on year of purchase from the hospital procurement department. In case the price was not available, market prices were used. Data on out of pocket payments OOP incurred by the patients for the specific services such as ASCT, chemotherapy at study hospital was collected by interviewing—31 MM patients who had accessed treatment 26 patients for conventional chemotherapy and 5 ASCT patients during last year.

Demographic and socio-economic details like age, gender, address, income, monthly consumption expenditure were also elicited. Data Analysis Unit health system cost of various services used by multiple myeloma patients was computed. These included cost per out-patient consultation, per patient who underwent ASCT, high dependency unit intensive care unit or per patient hospitalization in general ward. For capital resources, the costs were annualized. By annualization, we mean spreading out the costs of capital goods over the useful life with discounting to estimate its present equivalent monetary value.

The economic value of space used for treatment was calculated by multiplying the floor area being used under that service centre with the market rental prices of similar space.

Pankaj mishra economic times forex technoholik economic times forex


German socialists saw that their Machiavellian persecutor was determined to drive a wedge between them and the working class. What made Germany such a compelling prototype for Japan? It unified only in and began to industrialise nearly a hundred years after Britain.

Its leaders had to cope with the simultaneous challenges of rapid mechanisation and urbanisation, the disappearance of traditional livelihoods, the growth of trusts and cartels as well as trade unions, and an intensifying demand, articulated by a vibrant socialist movement, for political participation. Weber was among the conservative German nationalists who saw the social question as a matter of life or death.

Military and economic rivalry with Britain was a daunting enough prospect for their fledgling state. But, as disaffection increased among the classes uprooted and exploited by industrial capitalism — a political party representing the interests of the working classes emerged in Germany decades before it did in Britain — the fear of socialist revolution also preyed on the minds of German leaders.

They could not set about removing impediments to individual freedom in the way their counterparts in laissez-faire Britain were then doing, nor could they entrust economic affairs to the invisible hand of the market. In Atlantic Crossings: Social Politics in a Progressive Age , Daniel Rodgers showed that many Americans in the late 19th and early 20th centuries returned from stays in Germany with ideas that would inform the New Deal.

Little, however, is still known about the global history of this German-devised state — what W. Britain, the first major imperialist power of the modern era, successfully combined its early industrial and scientific revolution with slave labour and land grabs from Fiji to the Caribbean. Socialism stood little chance in a country where habits of deference to the ruling classes were and remain deeply entrenched. Alexander Hamilton is a rare example of an early American internationalist who saw strong states as playing an essential role in the hard struggles of the future.

But Americans, busy forging a nation from the white masters of a slave society, could afford to ignore him. They had the advantage of a constantly expanding frontier at home during the 19th century, by the end of which they had become commercially and militarily powerful, ready and keen to savour territories, resources and markets abroad.

Outdated institutions and ideologies endured partly because collective action by workers never matched the potent appeal of private interests. When inequality grew intolerable and meritocracy began to appear a fraud, the American ruling class answered its social question more ferociously than many tyrants, with mass incarceration — removing many of the long-term victims of slave society from public life. The American state had little authority to intervene in social and economic realms on behalf of ordinary citizens, but at the same time its mandate — to protect the liberty of its citizens from foreign states and non-state actors — turned the US into a military behemoth abroad and expanded the infrastructure of white domination at home.

In , Milton Friedman could count on an increasingly congenial ideological climate when he argued in the New York Times magazine that businesses had no social responsibility beyond making a profit. He was the public face of an ideological shift which saw libertarian economists such as James Buchanan, acting in concert with the right-wing zealot Charles Koch and lobbyists for corporations like Shell Oil, Exxon, Ford, IBM, Chase Manhattan Bank and General Motors, disseminating radical ideas through a pliable media and a new curriculum for economics education in universities.

Partly as a result of their influence, and emboldened by the rhetoric of Reagan and Thatcher, during the s politicians across the ideological spectrum began to dismantle social protections, undermine labour rights and slash taxes on the rich. Inspired by Thatcher and right-wing US think tanks, Tony Blair pushed state policy and public attitudes in Britain closer to the notion that welfare is a problem rather than the solution. An approving chorus was provided by the New Republic, once the main organ of American progressivism, as well as the National Review and the New York Times.

After the collapse of communism, and the moral challenge it presented, the corralling of African Americans was resumed without fear of international scrutiny; the new weapons for this purpose, honed to deadly effect under Clinton, and fully endorsed by Joe Biden in the Senate, were mass incarceration and a militarised police. The second black president lectured African Americans about individual responsibility while bailing out his future paymasters on Wall Street. Democracy does not guarantee good government, even in its original heartlands.

Neither does the individual choice that citizens of democracies periodically exercise — whether in referendums or elections — confer political wisdom on the chosen. It might even delude them, as Johnson and Trump confirm, into deranged notions of omnipotence. The ideal of democracy, according to which all adults are equal and possess equal power to choose and control political and economic outcomes, is realised nowhere.

The fact of economic inequality, not to mention the compromised character of political representatives, makes it unrealisable. More disturbing still, voters have been steadily deprived, not least by a mendacious or click-baiting fourth estate, of the capacity either to identify or to seek the public interest.

Modern democracy, in other words, bears little resemblance to the form of government that went under its name in ancient Greece. And during its early decades, when Martin Luther King, among others, travelled to India to seek inspiration for the civil rights movement, the country seemed a beacon to striving people of colour everywhere.

Here was a non-communist nation-state of overwhelmingly poor people, trying to create an egalitarian society and an internationally competitive economy within a political framework — parliamentary elections and separation of powers — explicitly modelled on Anglo-America.

But India never built a well-organised state of the sort that would allow such a country, despoiled by colonialism, to overcome its extreme disadvantages: an underproductive agricultural economy, a weak industrial base, and a poorly fed and mostly illiterate citizenry.

In the early decades of independence, government interventions did result in some progress in heavy industry and agriculture. Investment in higher though not primary education created generations of superbly skilled upper-caste Indians; many of them can be found today in senior positions at US corporations such as Microsoft and Google, as well as in academia and journalism.

But economic growth was slower than in many East Asian countries, despite the fact that India had started off with a broad industrial base and possessed a relatively strong bureaucratic and administrative apparatus. A spell of authoritarian rule under Indira Gandhi had resolved nothing, while revealing the spinelessness of the media and judiciary and the repressively law-and-order orientation of the state inherited from British colonialists.

Modi seemed to promise an India that would fulfil Anglo-American fantasies: an Asian country that combined democracy with free markets and would be a counterweight to authoritarian China. Manufacturing has long been stagnant; and banks are deeply in debt because of the bad loans they have handed out to crony-capitalists. More than million migrant workers have lost jobs during a botched lockdown; and now starvation looms over hundreds of millions of Indians already tormented by malnutrition, poor education and a lack of sanitation.

One reason the Covid pandemic threatens carnage in India is that it spends proportionately less than even Nepal and Timor-Leste — 1. The only Indian state with adequate protection from the pandemic is communist-controlled Kerala, whose public health and education systems have long ensured that the state has the highest life expectancy and literacy rate in India. South Korea started from an equally low base in the s and succeeded in creating both a modern industrialised economy and a society remarkable for its low levels of income, if not gender, inequality.

South Korea, on the other hand, demonstrated yet again that for late-developers, state-building is a pre-requisite for nation-building, and that social and economic well-being depends less on how political representatives are chosen and more on how adroitly the state formulates and implements policy.

These lessons in social and industrial policy, which Germany began administering in the late 19th century, and which have been most effectively taken to heart by China, were comprehensively lost on the upper-caste rulers of India, whose major preoccupation was the perpetuation of their own power through the ballot box. India today represents the worst of all possible worlds: far-right Hindus deftly manipulate electoral democracy and the public sphere, the state seems better equipped for repression than for welfare, and its economic experiments with deregulation and privatisation have produced numerous oligarchs but no internationally recognised product or enterprise.

South Korea, like India, took political inspiration from its former coloniser. Like the Japanese, he looked for guidance to Friedrich List, the German economic protectionist, rather than Adam Smith. All the same, its leaders were cautious from the start. Kelly lingers thoughtfully at the landmarks Herzen passed on his intellectual and political passage through the first half of the nineteenth century: Schiller, Hegel, Saint-Simon, Fourier, George Sand, Feuerbach, Louis Blanc and, crucially, Proudhon.

The Slavophiles and gradualists who preached caution instead of radical transformation were also responsible. But, after he left Russia for good in , living mainly in London as well as in Geneva and Paris, he identified a more insidious culprit: the self-aggrandizing bourgeois, who with his gunboats and equivocating ideology of liberalism was coercing and seducing the rest of the world into joining his pursuit of economic self-interest. The Russian peasant, untainted by bourgeois self-seeking, seemed to him better equipped to achieve the golden mean between social cohesion and individual freedom.

But the passion—and torment—that drove Herzen flashes only intermittently in her book. Far above the heads of the present crowd, he transmits his thoughts to those who will be able to comprehend them. Herzen, however, pioneered much more fruitful modes of intellectual and moral analysis than anti-totalitarianism.

He argued with Westernizing liberals in Russia who saw a strong state as the engine of secular modernity.

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