Betting advice for commission after the wins

From a probability standpoint, every individual combination of wins and losses is equally likely to occur even in random results. Thus, flipping a coin you are equally likely to have heads come up times in a row as you are to0 have heads and tails alternate perfectly for the entire flips, or to get any other predicted combination of heads and tails.

Of course the odds against any particularly combination appearing at random are immense 2 multiplied by itself times Try it on your calculator and see how far you get before your calculator goes on tilt. The reason is that only one result will satisfy the requirement of any set combination.

There are thousands of combinations that will provide wins and losses. Then divide the first number by the second number. But there is yeat another fly in the soup. A result of wins and losses will do. In fact, any result that provides more than wins and even a few results sli8ghtly less than wins will do.

That means we can add hundreds of thousands of possible combinations in the games that will get him to where he needs to be. Thus, the question, is: How did you calculate any of the probabilities you provide in the article? Do you have some formula that does it for you? A computer program perhaps? A little transparency is necessary if you want to credibly prove something scientifically or mathematically.

Without transparency, you are simply spouting propaganda and become as bad as muck you claim to be raking. Not every team is equally likely to cover the spread. Much has to do with the ability of the line maker to be accurate,in predicting the game, and the line maker is not trying to pick the game accurately — he is trying to even out public sentiment, which is quite a different matter.

Then the public comes in and moves the line further to correct for the errors of the line maker in predicting sentiment. It is those errors in the line as a game predictor that account for the fact that year in and year out the Vegas casinos fail to hold their full 4.

If we assume that a win is more likely that a loss, the odds against a final result providing between and wins in diminish further. Finally, you are engaging in circular reasoning. In other words, you are providing a self-fulfilling prophesy. There are a couple of important catches, though. First, unless you're a professional gambler more on that in a second , you have to itemize in order to deduct gambling losses itemized deductions are claimed on Schedule A opens in new tab. Unfortunately, most people don't itemize.

So, if you claim the standard deduction , you're out of luck twice — once for losing your bet and once for not being able to deduct your gambling losses. Second, you can't deduct gambling losses that are more than the winnings you report on your return.

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