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The GMMA became a tool for identifying the probability of trend development. These broad relationships, and the more advanced relationships used with the GMMA are summarized in the chart. Over the following series of articles we will examine the identification and application of each of these relationships.

It was not about taking the lag out of the moving average calculation. It is about validating a prior trend break signal by examining the relationship between price and value. Once the initial trend break signal is validated by the GMMA the trader is able to enter a breakout trade with a higher level of confidence. We start with the breakout above the straight edge trend line. The vertical line shows the decision point on the day of the breakout.

We need to be sure that this breakout is for real and likely to continue upwards. After several months in a downtrend the initial breakout sometimes fails and develops as shown by the thick black line. This signals a change in the nature of the trend line from a resistance function prior to the breakout to a support function after the breakout.

The GMMA is used to assess the probability that the trend break shown by the straight edge trend line is genuine. We start by observing the activity of the short term group. This tells us how traders are thinking. In area A we see a compression of the averages. This suggests that traders have reached an agreement on price and value.

The price of CBA has been driven so low that many traders now believe it is worth more than the current traded price. Unfortunately many other short term traders have reached the same conclusion. They also want to buy at this price. A bidding war erupts. Traders who believe they are missing out on the opportunity outbid their competitors to ensure they get a position in the stock at favorable prices.

The compression of these averages shows agreement about price and value. The expansion of the group shows that traders are excited about the future prospects of increased value even though prices are still rising. These traders buy in anticipation of a trend change.

They are probing for a trend change. We use the straight edge trend line to signal an increased probability of a trend change. When this signal is generated we observe this change in direction and separation in the short term group of averages. We know traders believe this stock has a future.

We want confirmation that the long term investors are also buying this confidence. The long term group of averages, at the decision point, is showing signs of compression and the beginning of a change in direction. Notice how quickly the compression starts and the decisive change in direction. This is despite the longest average of 60 days which we would normally expect to lag well behind any trend change. This compression in the long term group is evidence of the synchronicity relationship that makes the GMMA so useful.

This compression and change in direction tells us that there is an increased probability that the change in trend direction is for real — it is sustainable. This encourages us to buy the stock soon after the decision point shown. The GMMA picks up a seismic shift in the markets sentiment as it happens, even though we are using a 60 day moving average.. Later we will look at how this indicator is used to develop reliable advance signals of this change.

This compression and eventual crossover within the long term group takes place in area B. The trend change is confirmed. The agreement amongst investors about price and value cannot last. Where there is agreement some people see opportunity. There are many investors who will have missed out on joining the trend change prior to area B.

Now the change is confirmed they want to get part of the action. Generally investors move larger funds than traders. Their activity in the market has a larger impact. The latecomers can only buy stock if they outbid their competitors. The stronger the initial trend, the more pressure there is to get an early position. This increased bidding supports the trend. This is shown by the way the long term group continue to move up, and by the way the long term group of averages separates.

The wider the spread the more powerful the underlying trend. Even the traders retain faith in this tend change. The sell off that takes place in area C is not very strong. The group of short term averages dips towards the long term group and then bounces away quickly. The long term group of averages show that investors take this opportunity to buy stock at temporarily wakened prices.

Although the long term group falters out at this point, the degree of separation remains relatively constant and this confirms the strength of the emerging trend. Short term traders exit the trade taking short term profits at this level of return and this is reflected by the compression and collapse of the short term group of averages. As long term investors step into the market and buy CBA at these weakened prices, traders sense that the trend is well supported.

Their activity takes off, and the short term group of averages rebounds, separates, and then run parallel to the long term group as the trend continues. The compression of the short term and long term groups validates the trend break signal generated by a close above the straight edge trend line.

Using this basic application of the GMMA, the trader has the confidence necessary to buy CBA at, or just after the decision points shown on the chart extract. Using this straightforward application of the GMMA also kept traders out of false breakouts. The straight edge trend line provides the first indication that a downtrend may be turning to an up trend. The CSL chart shows two examples of a false break from a straight edge trend line.

We start with decision point A. The steep downtrend is clearly broken by a close above the trend line. If this is a genuine trend break then we have the opportunity to get in early well before any moving average crossover signal. This trend break collapses quickly. If we had first observed this chart near decision point B then we may have chosen to plot the second trend line as shown.

This plot takes advantage of the information on the chart. We know the first break was false, and by taking this into account we set the second trend line plot. Can this trend break be relied upon? If we are right we get to ride a new up trend.

If we are wrong we stand to lose money if we stay with a continuation of the downtrend. The straight edge trend line by itself does not provide enough information to make a good decision.

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